![]() And, concerningly, scientists found that the most significant changes were happening to the strongest storms, making the most life-threatening hurricanes even more dangerous. “So if you increase the amount of heat energy in the ocean by warming it up, you’re going to increase not only the maximum intensity they can get, but also the rate at which they get to that maximum intensity.”Ī 2019 study found that Atlantic hurricanes in particular showed a “highly unusual” increase in rapid intensification from the 1980s to the early 2000s – a trend that could only be explained by human-caused climate change. “Hurricanes and typhoons are heat engines, which means they take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the kinetic energy that are winds,” Masters told CNN. The oceans, in turn, absorb 90% of the excess heat, which has led to an alarming increase in temperature.Īnd much of that warming has happened in the top levels of the ocean where hurricanes get their energy, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist at Yale Climate Connections. ![]() ![]() Planet-warming emissions from fossil fuels trap heat in the atmosphere, creating an energy imbalance. Scientists have shown humans are the dominant cause of the relentless warming trend. The past five years have been the warmest on record for the world’s oceans. More than 90% of global warming over the past 50 years has taken place in the oceans, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hurricane Ian’s has been in the forecast for days, giving Cuba and Florida the benefit of time.Ī checklist of what to do - and pack - when a hurricane's coming Noru’s rapid intensification right before landfall – which was not predicted – likely meant locals had no time prepare for the much stronger storm. Super Typhoon Noru exploded in strength on its final approach toward the Pacific island nation, going from the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane to a category 5 overnight as residents around Manila slept. The phenomenon played out with breathtaking speed in the Philippines this weekend. “The intensification rates in Noru and Ian are good examples of very rapid intensification, and there have been many others recently.” “Climate change is increasing both the maximum intensity that these storms can achieve, and the rate of intensification that can bring them to this maximum,” said Jim Kossin, a senior scientist at the Climate Service. So not only are they generating more rainfall and larger storm surge – they are also more likely to be stronger and are intensifying faster. Live updates: Florida braces for Hurricane Ianīut human-caused climate change is stacking the deck in favor of more intense storms. Sometimes it only happens a few times per season.” And so it’s something that’s by definition, a rare event. ![]() “Only something like 6% or so of all forecast time periods have those types of rapid intensification rates observed associated with them. It “is really sort of at the extreme end of how quickly storms can intensify,” Wing told CNN. And it has historically been a rare phenomenon, according to Allison Wing, an assistant professor of atmospheric science at Florida State University. Scientists have defined it as a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Rapid intensification is precisely what it sounds like – a hurricane’s winds strengthening rapidly over a short amount of time. Here's why meteorologists say Ian's exact path is still uncertain ![]()
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